FRC INAUGURATES TECHNICAL TEAMS ON FISCAL POLICY FORECAST STRATEGIES.
The Chairman of the Fiscal Responsibility Commission, Victor Muruako Esq, has inaugurated five macro-economic coordinating teams implement fiscal policy strategies of the commission.
Last year, the IMF’s AFRITAC West Africa and Fiscal Affairs Department conducted two capacity-building workshops for the technical staff of the Fiscal Responsibility Commission in July and August, aimed at supporting the Commission with adequate technical know-how to discharge its mandate, vis-à-vis fiscal regulation.
Consequently, the mission proposed eight recommendations that would help the Commission adequately monitor and regulate Nigeria’s fiscal policy space, which include, among others, the creation of technical working groups that specialize in fiscal policy monitoring.
While tasking the members of the various technical teams with this onerous responsibility of fiscal policy monitoring, Mr. Muruako charged them to give their best and work hard in order to ensure the Commission continues to discharge its mandate of enforcing the provisions of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007, which entails fostering fiscal transparency and accountability in Nigeria.
The five technical working teams, whose membership was drawn from the six directorates of the Commission, are: the Macro Fiscal Forecasting Database Team; the Revenue Forecasting Analysis Team; the Expenditure Analysis Team; the Fiscal Risk Analysis Team; and the Public Debt Sustainability Analysis Team.
The teams’ general terms of reference include preparing and prescribing a budget execution format for reporting budget execution; updating the macro-fiscal forecasting accuracy dataset for conducting regular assessments of micro-fiscal forecasts; reviewing the governance structure and aligning it with the mandate and functions in compliance with the FRA 2007; and establishing a fiscal risk registry to support the analysis of the MTEF and annual budgets.
February 15, 2023 at 3:58 am
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February 18, 2023 at 1:15 am
Feb 14 (Reuters) – The U.S.
central bank will need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation, Dallas Federal Reserve
President Lorie Logan said on Tuesday, putting investors on notice that borrowing costs may ultimately need to go higher than is now widely expected. “We must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated, if such a path is necessary to respond to changes in the economic outlook or to offset any undesired easing in conditions,”
Logan said in remarks prepared for delivery to students at Prairie View A&M University in Texas.
“And even after we have enough evidence that we don’t need to raise rates at some future meeting, we’ll need to remain flexible and tighten further if changes in the economic outlook or financial conditions call for it.” The
Fed last year lifted interest rates further and faster than any time since the 1980s to
fight inflation that, by the central bank’s preferred measure, has run for two years at about triple its 2% target.
Fed policymakers have signaled they expect the benchmark overnight interest rate, now in the 4.50%-4.75% range, to
need to go to at least 5.1% before policy will be “sufficiently restrictive” to ease price pressures.
Key to that, Logan said on Tuesday, will be substantial further slowing in wage growth and better “balance” in what is
now an “incredibly strong” labor market.
The unemployment rate fell in January to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969. Logan, who is among the
19 policymakers who set interest rates at the Fed, said that though wage gains have moderated somewhat
from their peak, she would need to see a lot more data to be
convinced the labor market is no longer overheated. Logan also said she
will need to see “convincing” signs that inflation is dropping sustainably and in a timely manner toward the
2% target. While there has been progress on inflation, with a
moderation particularly in goods prices and more recently in housing,
she said, more is needed, especially for prices of core
services excluding housing.
Without improvement there, she said, inflation could land at 3%, above the Fed’s
target. “The most important risk I see is that if we tighten too little, the economy will remain overheated and we will fail to keep inflation in check,” Logan said.
“That could trigger a self-fulfilling spiral of unanchored inflation expectations that would be very costly to stop.” There are
also risks, she said, of going too far and weakening the labor market more than necessary in pursuit of slowing inflation. “My own view is that, given the risks, we shouldn’t lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates,” she said.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao)